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Friday, August 1, 2008

01 August 2008 SLX


Gerald,
Steel appears to be a volatile sector. The move you refer to in the sector BPI from 60% to 18% all happened in July 2008! The same is true for the reversal from $100 to $81 in SLX -- it all happened last month. For SLX previous support seems to be at $75 and it found new support in March at $81 (on the BPI). This is precarious at best since it was violated in late March and hasn't been tested again till now. Although the BPI and the 30% wk ma charts are in columns of Xs, the 10% wk ma chart, which suggests shorter term trends, is in a column of Os. So even though the sector is on a Sector Hunter RS Buy signal for the long-term, SLX will probably see some continued volatility, starting to the downside. Having said that, the MACD looks like it's reversing to the upside and the reduced volume on the recent downtrend suggests that there isn't necessarily support for the trend.

I might set my stop loss (is that one word or two?!?) at $81 for the first lot (@ $84.45) and at $87 for the second lot (@90.70), since it found brief support there earlier. This would be in line with Teeka's three-box policy.

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